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Are ‘Malaria’ outbreaks in the United Kingdom predictable with estimated rise in the temperature?
Recently I have undertaken the module ‘Climate change and health: the role of the healthcare professional’ one of the classic BMJ learning modules.
I was not convinced at the answer of one of the questions ‘If the United Kingdom undergoes the predicted rise in temperature of 2.5-3.0°C by the end of the 21st century, which of the following is NOT likely to be seen more frequently?’, the answer being ‘Malaria’
As per our knowledge, the mosquitoes are as competent & tough as the cockroaches are to survive & are able to withstand a wide fluctuation of temperature.
The question is ‘Are we really competent enough to predict the survival of a species like the mosquitoes? & if yes, on which ‘strong’ assumptions when we are not yet been able to prevent even a single epidemic of Malaria neither are we successful to develop an antimalarial vaccine yet despite several years of research & a huge expenditure?