The more you learn, the less you know
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The more you learn, the less you know
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Although in the UK 'summer', June this year might as well be November, influenza is having it's out of winter break, so it's not on the popular media horizon. But Nature, the pre-eminent UK
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The more you learn, the less you know
posted at 22/6/2012 5:41 PM BST
on bmj.com
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Posts: 2044
First: 12/3/2010 Last: 21/5/2013 |
Although in the UK 'summer', June this year might as well be November, influenza is having it's out of winter break, so it's not on the popular media horizon. But Nature, the pre-eminent UK journal for science in general has an article that gives me no comfort at all. http://www.nature.com/news/influenza-five-questions-on-h5n1-1.10874 I'll not try to precis it for you, it is an easy, quick read, but it left me afraid that we are a very small mutation away from the post World War One 'flu epidemic, that was truly world-wide and killed far more people than died in that terrible war. Almost worse, 'flu mutates all the time, so that "any one patient carries a swarm of viruses with subtle genetic differences". When H5N1 is only two to four mutations away from acquiring pandemic potential, that is not reassuring. Two laboratories working on 'flu have engineered cultures to be pandemic, so this change may not be far off. But it's not all doom and gloom. H5N1 has been around for a long time, in wild and domesticated birds. It may be that there are many more infections of humans than we realise and that the death rate is very much less than the 60% that official figures indicate, and it may be that, like post WW1 'flu and 'pig' flu, only certain individuals are susceptible, rather than everyone. And in the natural vector, wild birds, infection rates have dropped markedly since 2011. Just about every aspect of H5N1 that this helpful article deals with gets back to the problem of how little we know. One expert virologist commented, “Any prediction about whether this virus will go pandemic is a function of where it is, how much of it there is and how possible the human–animal contacts are. But there are big black holes of information.” John |
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Re: The more you learn, the less you know
posted at 22/6/2012 9:16 PM BST
on bmj.com
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Posts: 2044
First: 12/3/2010 Last: 21/5/2013 |
Oh, for goodness sake, Duane! Try to have a larger perspective on the world than the borders of the USA! The "United States Army Medical Research Institute for Infective Diseases" (Which should be rendered, should it not, "USAMRIID"?) is, no doubt, an eminent and effective body for medical research. But it is far from the only one that is interested in 'flu, nor is it one of the laboratories that are far into defining how H5N1 exerts its threat. Those are the Erasmus Medical Center in Rotterdam, and the University of Wisconsin-Madison, where pandemic-capable flu was engineered, and they are only two in a world-wide network of labs and researchers. JOhn |
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Re: The more you learn, the less you know
posted at 23/6/2012 3:53 AM BST
on bmj.com
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Posts: 2947
First: 10/3/2009 Last: 29/4/2013 |
We are working on it is Australia, but being peace loving, sporty nation of beer swilling slobs we are working on it but not aggressively. Each day millions of our chicken eggs die in this fight for mankind and a better world. Battalions of sentinel chickens man the trenches of our northern coast line to be bled regularly in this fight against the unseen killer viruses that threaten our shores. Our stock market hinges on the latest titre of Greek Killer Deficit Disease and other arboviruses. The war against viruses is a battle without end.
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Re: The more you learn, the less you know
posted at 23/6/2012 5:05 AM BST
on bmj.com
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Posts: 1282
First: 9/12/2011 Last: 21/5/2013 |
John D, you really do need to get control of your emotions! I do have a large perspective on things, especially in the Biotox field, since I am a CBRNE Subject Matter Expert. I was merely saying that USAMARIID is working on stuff related to this. a simple post, need not be within the borders of USA, just happens USAMARIID is in USA! Sorry for that Dear fellow. If I mention my home state New York, and you get all bothered, well, what can I say. I Live and work in the USA, so by default I do mostly things in the USA. I was in the Military, and spent 5 years in Germany, Does me spening time in Germany offend you too? as an aside, the French do some wonderfull work in Biological Defense, as do the Canadians. By the way, John, USAMARIID is defining quite nicely how H5N1 exerts its threat, USAMARIID responds worldwide to outbreaks of Ebola, MArburg, Lassa, Hant-virus, etc. They are some of the best available anywhere... DuaneF In Response to Re: The more you learn, the less you know: Oh, for goodness sake, Duane! Try to have a larger perspective on the world than the borders of the USA! The "United States Army Medical Research Institute for Infective Diseases" (Which should be rendered, should it not, "USAMRIID"?) is, no doubt, an eminent and effective body for medical research. But it is far from the only one that is interested in 'flu, nor is it one of the laboratories that are far into defining how H5N1 exerts its threat. Those are the Erasmus Medical Center in Rotterdam, and the University of Wisconsin-Madison, where pandemic-capable flu was engineered, and they are only two in a world-wide network of labs and researchers. JOhn
Posted by John D |
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Re: The more you learn, the less you know
posted at 23/6/2012 11:09 AM BST
on bmj.com
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Posts: 959
First: 15/7/2011 Last: 21/5/2013 |
In Response to Re: The more you learn, the less you know: Oh, for goodness sake, Duane! Try to have a larger perspective on the world than the borders of the USA! The "United States Army Medical Research Institute for Infective Diseases" (Which should be rendered, should it not, "USAMRIID"?) is, no doubt, an eminent and effective body for medical research. But it is far from the only one that is interested in 'flu, nor is it one of the laboratories that are far into defining how H5N1 exerts its threat. Those are the Erasmus Medical Center in Rotterdam, and the University of Wisconsin-Madison, where pandemic-capable flu was engineered, and they are only two in a world-wide network of labs and researchers. JOhn Posted by John D John I concur wholeheartedly. Whilst the USA is working to solve such problems there are plenty of wonderful brainy people working hard around the globe to solve such issues. There is human life beyond Americas borders. |
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Re: The more you learn, the less you know
posted at 23/6/2012 11:14 AM BST
on bmj.com
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Posts: 959
First: 15/7/2011 Last: 21/5/2013 |
In the legal arena I can say categorically that the longer I am in the profession the more I recognise that I know more and more about less and less. When you specialise (like in medicine I would guess) all the other spheres of the profession gallop along without you. |
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Re: The more you learn, the less you know
posted at 23/6/2012 12:21 PM BST
on bmj.com
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Posts: 2947
First: 10/3/2009 Last: 29/4/2013 |
In Response to Re: The more you learn, the less you know: In Response to Re: The more you learn, the less you know : John I concur wholeheartedly. Whilst the USA is working to solve such problems there are plenty of wonderful brainy people working hard around the globe to solve such issues. There is human life beyond Americas borders. Posted by kirked Objection Your Honour and Sir Kirked, Sire. There is human life beyond the US frontier but it is not in the free form. The rest of the human race is un-free as opposed to America the Free which does not apply to taxes, Boston Tea Parties, and several other manifestations of a state of unfreeness. I come from a downtrodden convict race of unfree people who just long to be free except for the five hundred or so boat refugees who drown annually trying freely to come to our shores trying to be more free which is to say still unfree but less so. We don''t have wonderful brainy people being intellectual morons but we did get the Nobel Prize for stomach ulcers and human papilloma virus vaccine which afflicts us in our state of unfreeness as both the bacteria and the virus are free to do just about anything they want to in our stomachs and nether regions which is not to be confused with the Southern Hermisphere. Your Honour. I rest my case.
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